The Maitland Valley Conservation Authority is issuing a Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook for all municipalities in the Maitland and Nine Mile River watersheds.

Prolonged cold temperatures and persistent snowfall throughout the season have resulted in an above-average snowpack across the watersheds, similar to conditions experienced last year. A snow survey conducted Monday, March 2nd by Maitland Conservation staff confirmed snow water equivalent (SWE) values ranging from 90 to 170 mm.

Current weather forecasts indicate a rapid warming trend later this week, with a chance of rain. A substantial melt event is expected, with the potential for river levels to approach or exceed flood stage due to snowmelt alone. Peak flows are currently anticipated this weekend. Any additional rainfall would further accelerate melt rates, increase runoff, and worsen flooding conditions. Although river ice reached considerable thickness earlier this winter, it has diminished substantially. The overall risk of significant ice jam formation is considered low; however, localized ice jams remain possible in historically prone areas.

While the extent of flooding will depend on temperature patterns and rainfall amounts, the overall flood risk is elevated. Municipal officials and residents are encouraged to ensure culverts, storm drains, and drainage pathways are clear where possible, secure property near watercourses, and remain alert to rapidly changing river conditions.

Residents are reminded to exercise caution near all watercourses. Stream and river flows are expected to become strong and hazardous, and riverbanks may be unstable due to melting snow. Ice conditions also remain unpredictable.

Maitland Conservation staff are closely monitoring watershed conditions and weather forecasts and will provide updates as conditions evolve.

Contact:
Jeff Winzenried, Flood Forecasting Supervisor
jwinzenried@mvca.on.ca