Maitland Conservation is issuing a Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety for all municipalities in the Maitland and Nine Mile River watersheds.
Mild temperatures moved into the region yesterday (Thursday), with temperatures rising above freezing and continuing to warm today. Daytime highs are forecast to reach upwards of 10°C. As of early this morning, rainfall across the watershed was widespread, with totals of approximately 10 mm. Forecasts also indicate the potential for additional light rain later today.
Recent snow survey measurements show that the snow water equivalent within the existing snowpack ranges from approximately 50 to 110 mm. While a complete melt of the snowpack is not anticipated, the combination of rainfall and mild temperatures is causing partial snowpack melt. This is releasing meltwater and generating additional runoff today, resulting in rising river and stream levels throughout the watershed.
Rivers and streams will respond throughout the day, and water levels will continue to rise overnight. Headwater areas are expected to peak over the weekend, while larger watercourses are anticipated to peak early next week. Temperatures are forecast to fall back below freezing later today, which will slow snowmelt rates and limit further depletion of the snowpack; however, flows are expected to remain elevated into next week.
Although significant flooding is not expected at this time, watercourses may approach or exceed bankfull conditions in many areas, leading to minor flooding or ponding in typical low‑lying and flood‑prone locations. Rivers and streams are currently largely ice-free, and issues related to ice-breakup or jamming are not anticipated during this event.
Municipal officials are encouraged to monitor drainage systems and low-lying areas, including flood-prone roads. Members of the public are reminded that high flows, slippery streambanks and cold water temperatures will create hazardous conditions around all watercourses.
Maitland Conservation will continue to monitor watershed conditions and will provide updates if required.
This message is in effect until 9:00 a.m. Tuesday, January 13, 2026.
Contact:
Jeff Winzenried, Flood Forecasting Supervisor
jwinzenried@mvca.on.ca
Types of Flood Messages:
Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety – General watershed conditions are being assessed for high runoff potential that could lead to flooding, and to remind the public of general river safety issues.
Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook – Early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow melt, high wind or other conditions that could lead to high runoff, cause ice jams, lakeshore flooding or erosion.
Flood Watch – Flooding is possible in specific watercourses or municipalities. Municipalities, emergency services and individual landowners in flood-prone areas should prepare.
Flood Warning – Flooding is imminent or already occurring in specific watercourses or municipalities. Municipalities and individuals should take action to deal with flood conditions. This may include road closures and evacuations.